What a market regime score tells you (and what it doesn't)
A regime score compresses four separate readings — trend, breadth, volatility, and coverage — into one number. That compression is useful, and it's also exactly where the risk of misreading it comes from.
What goes into it
- 24h trend. The overall direction of tracked prices.
- Breadth. How many cards are participating in that direction versus how few — a move led by one or two cards reads very differently from one shared across the board.
- Volatility. How calm or erratic prices have been, independent of direction.
- Coverage. How much of the tracked universe actually has enough data to trust the read.
The rule that makes it reliable
The read only calls a clear direction when at least two of the four indicators agree. One strong indicator alone is treated as insufficient — a deliberate choice, because a single loud signal is exactly the kind of thing that feels most convincing and is most often wrong.
What the score is not
It is not a forecast. "Greed" describes the current mood of tracked prices, not where they're going next. It is not a signal to act on any individual card — it's context for reading individual signals, which still need their own evidence.
How to actually use it
Start wide, then narrow. Read the regime first to understand whether today's environment rewards patience or supports acting. Then check whether an individual card's own evidence — sales depth, seller concentration, source agreement — actually supports a move, rather than assuming the broad regime applies card-by-card.
A 64/100 "Greed" reading and a specific card's 91/100 evidence quality are answering different questions. Treat them that way.
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